MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb4c4b51c03b8cb118dd0c36017129f06022240fea687cbc154a9ef4ab730c2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 489.28$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 486.88$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 381.05$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 241$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 174.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 158.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 137.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 134.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 132.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 108.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 101.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…76b6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 97.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 96.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 95.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 82.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 75.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 59.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 48.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 46.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 46.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 46.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 46.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 46.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 46.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 43.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 41.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 37.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 36.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 35.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 32.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 32.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 28.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 27.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 25.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 24.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.