TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,216,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,779,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,216,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed Under52c563,306$293,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270,152.926445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over49c100,000$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,0005248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over47c100,000$47,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,00031039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Over47c92,432$43,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,867.431533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over48c40,812$19,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,393.981,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over48c40,200$19,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,295.465050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over48c25,350$12,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,1685726.3%15 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+221.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over48c25,175$12,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,085.041,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over49c24,200$11,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,8161921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c20,845$9,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,944.731,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over49c16,674$8,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,170.2923738%90 W · 147 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Over49c14,750$7,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,227.413240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over47c14,523$6,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,762.242,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Over49c9,549$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.818733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over47c6,118$2,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.0320350.7%103 W · 100 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed Over47c5,744$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.821346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Over50c5,265$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.663461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Over48c5,077$2,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.0212754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over48c4,690$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.031,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over48c4,662$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.176,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over49c4,325$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.025,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92062447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Over48c3,757$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.935350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Over48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4404454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9967250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Over50c2,910$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45516947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c2,856$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.267849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Over48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9608552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Over49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9804742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Over49c1,980$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.3916453%87 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.161,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over38c1,540$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.7512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Over49c1,433$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.91861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea28…383ebacked Over48c1,419$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Over48c1,046$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.3139948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over52c1,027$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.8168652.9%363 W · 323 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d88…1695backed Over49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Over49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7c…7a19backed Over50c974.11$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.7511749.6%58 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Over50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe226…95a5backed Under51c779.06$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.955451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under70c699.85$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.82445.8%11 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under52c607.97$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.9119452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Over49c593.51$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8225751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over49c566.84$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2519248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over48c513.93$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.49,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Over51c506.23$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.181668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+40.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over50c485$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.51,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under52c435.34$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.29255.4%51 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over49c395.52$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.81,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Over49c387.76$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Under48c355.15$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.682259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccb7…0477backed Over48c310.07$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8311365.5%74 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over50c301$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.527751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Over43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1296653%35 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Over48c294$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1214340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under52c273.84$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.441,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Under52c273.84$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.448045%36 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under52c273.84$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4434452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under52c273.84$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4415847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under51c272$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2875049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Over49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.522851.3%117 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11561652.8%325 W · 291 L+31.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Over48c242.2$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2610945.9%50 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c5a…d48abacked Over50c233.58$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.794353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under59c230.73$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.425,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Under52c230.02$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.397354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over46c229$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.679725.8%25 W · 72 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Over48c219.21$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.226048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over49c214.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5918649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Over50c212.43$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2219951.8%103 W · 96 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Over49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9419842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over49c196.19$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9772648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Over10c194.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.486437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Under50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9718151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0624950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6524348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over25c174.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7613256.1%74 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over49c173.89$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0725249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over48c170.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9670546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Over49c169.65$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.137750.6%39 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under50c159.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5321847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e11…8b81backed Over50c154.64$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over49c154.48$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.76440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Over48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7213560%81 W · 54 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over50c140.34$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6230750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over49c139.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3394648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over49c139.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.337345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over49c139.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3351555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Over49c139.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3313343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over49c139.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3328646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over49c137.27$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2645246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under52c136.57$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1439351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over50c135.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.251,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under52c134.39$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.511,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under52c134.39$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.511,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under52c134.39$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5115753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.