MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5f8b0ed5cb5a7e53b1e75105c5a96f55f6e1dcde47e7d6e45453d67668d500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc30b…b9dbbacked Detroit Tigers | 34c | 579.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 347.12$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…c092backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 308.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 285.71$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 268.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…fbe2backed Detroit Tigers | 6c | 211.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 14c | 167.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 103.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 62.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 62.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 50.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Detroit Tigers | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 39.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.