Champions League · resolved market
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb63da0ef45e1028bd33fe8c0e1b7e8c61fe34bc944da8db953e21affc8f2428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $666,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $666,330 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Under | 14c | 246,711$33,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,831.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 12c | 20,774$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.24 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Under | 12c | 16,849$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.87 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…3b02backed Under | 13c | 9,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 13c | 2,389$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.57 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 13c | 1,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 15c | 1,307$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 15c | 993.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 12c | 817.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 5c | 544$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 12c | 499.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 606 | 48.3%293 W · 313 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 13c | 428.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Under | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 14c | 366.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 13c | 340.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed Under | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 15c | 196.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 80c | 191.27$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Under | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…4d40backed Under | 20c | 180.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 13c | 171.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 402 | 50.7%204 W · 198 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 12c | 148.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 77c | 144.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…8ae5backed Under | 13c | 141.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 38c | 110.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 12c | 107.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…cb82backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…f879backed Over | 57c | 87.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 66c | 84.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2e25backed Under | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)FC Barcelona won
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)FC Barcelona won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)FC Barcelona won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)FC Barcelona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.