Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2340286357835b34e8378a81f5082f0f3c62b294b788695e3cfd778e081ec1dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Barcelonaof Newcastle United FC, FC Barcelona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,421 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Newcastle United FC | 6c | 3,385$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.13 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Newcastle United FC | 7c | 2,684$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle United FC | 5c | 1,268$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Newcastle United FC | 4c | 1,152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Newcastle United FC | 5c | 1,012$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 435 | 37.9%165 W · 270 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Newcastle United FC | 8c | 918.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Newcastle United FC | 9c | 432.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Newcastle United FC | 7c | 410.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f0…233bbacked Newcastle United FC | 11c | 294.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Newcastle United FC | 8c | 249.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Newcastle United FC | 8c | 162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)FC Barcelona won
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)FC Barcelona won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)FC Barcelona won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.