Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb6eba69027fd2eb477cf363d9891b6a6d20cd5bc111b08b2b4b14be2065a64c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 679.11$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.72 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 65c | 609.59$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.59 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 59c | 599.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 5c | 408.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 29c | 370.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 38c | 354.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 63c | 338$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 293.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 38c | 288$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 74c | 270.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 37c | 194$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Over | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 121.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 63c | 108.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 28c | 88.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 692 | 52.3%362 W · 330 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 65.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 36c | 49.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 52c | 45.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.