Tennis · resolved market
Chengdu Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alejandro Tabilo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb91d4443af4ccb2f0b788ff359912ed90f6b42816c4b01bb0ac2c37ade48876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tabiloof Nakashima, Tabilo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Nakashima | 38c | 5,000$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Tabilo | 44c | 3,422$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.27 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Tabilo | 62c | 3,407$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.82 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Nakashima | 35c | 3,255$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.82 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Tabilo | 36c | 2,961$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Tabilo | 58c | 2,078$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.03 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tabilo | 65c | 1,611$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.98 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tabilo | 70c | 1,059$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.13 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nakashima | 64c | 984.77$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.25 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Nakashima | 64c | 937.5$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Nakashima | 64c | 800$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Nakashima | 65c | 662$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.3 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Nakashima | 64c | 539.69$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.4 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…335abacked Nakashima | 45c | 521.11$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Tabilo | 36c | 507.81$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Nakashima | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Nakashima | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Nakashima | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Nakashima | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Nakashima | 64c | 279.09$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Tabilo | 36c | 275.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Tabilo | 75c | 268.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Tabilo | 63c | 261.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Tabilo | 52c | 228.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Nakashima | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Nakashima | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Nakashima | 64c | 165.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nakashima | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Nakashima | 54c | 150.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Nakashima | 34c | 145$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Nakashima | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Nakashima | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Nakashima | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Nakashima | 64c | 73.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tabilo | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…31d3backed Nakashima | 62c | 51.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima | 61c | 51.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tabilo | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tabilo | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Tabilo | 67c | 39.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Tabilo | 70c | 35.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Nakashima | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Nakashima | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Nakashima | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.