Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbad775c9dcb20950c213b7913cb8e1c7047add780300b38bf849d61b44db983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 569.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 519.61$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 77c | 257.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 10c | 211.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 204.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 197.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 180.44$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 140.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 134.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 129.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 116.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 26c | 107.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 95.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 81.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 80.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 20c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 67.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 67.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 19c | 62.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 76c | 59.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 25c | 51.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 76c | 49.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 40.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 76c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 73c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 75c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.