Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bb8ba1f0a9574b3760352a8d6129122b18d581cfc97145e56fe5fb64fe34e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 67c | 906.99$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.22 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 506.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 397.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 54c | 254.28$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 244.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 242.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 212$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 163.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 162.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 157$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 56c | 148.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 49c | 147.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 44c | 138.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed No | 62c | 124.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 124.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9878…c920backed No | 41c | 123.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 60c | 120.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 119.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed Yes | 68c | 119.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 117.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 104.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 48c | 103.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 99.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 98.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 43c | 94.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed Yes | 70c | 89.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 88.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 70c | 85.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 44c | 83.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 65c | 83.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 79.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 79.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 52c | 77.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed Yes | 57c | 74.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c5b7backed No | 61c | 73.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 73.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 46c | 71.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 70.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 37c | 69.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 68.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 43c | 66.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 65.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 72c | 65.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 45c | 64.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 70c | 63.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 45c | 62.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 62.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 61c | 61.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 52c | 61.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 60.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 49c | 56.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 40c | 55.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 55.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 55.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 52.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 64c | 51.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 50.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 49.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 51c | 48.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 47.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 38c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 39c | 42.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 50c | 39.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d9…ee1ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 37.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 40c | 37.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 37.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 35.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 50c | 33.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 32.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 63c | 31.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 53c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 49c | 30.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 54c | 29.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.