Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66c6510c17d95fff5cf060ee854140288821d565363e7cbc78de8db7ff95841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,558$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.28 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 76c | 1,183$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.71 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…706bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,065$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 24c | 841.4$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.94 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 72c | 526.59$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 458.71$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 299.33$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 238.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 28c | 231.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 212$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 198.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 180.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 168.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed Yes | 40c | 147.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 22c | 141.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 139$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 21c | 137.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 135.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 135.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 130.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 119.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 117.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 110.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 109.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 109.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 108.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 107.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 94.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 16c | 93.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 43c | 91.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 68c | 85.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Yes | 59c | 84.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 23c | 78.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 77.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 53c | 75.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 75.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 73.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 16c | 68.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 62c | 65.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 21c | 63.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 62.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 73c | 61.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 56.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 20c | 52.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 58c | 51.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 51.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 49.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 51c | 48.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 46.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 45.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked Yes | 29c | 45.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 31c | 45.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 48c | 43.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 42.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 41.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 52c | 37.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 37.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 35.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 36c | 35.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 35.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 31.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 61c | 30.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 30.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 26.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 80c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 22.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 21.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 20.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 58c | 18.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6251…8f7bbacked Yes | 75c | 15.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 79c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.