MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbb314635dbb2496974857ea3fb3b8d51075ec0b0dc3111251409a7923a805ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 3,207$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.44 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 3,125$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.55 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 2,703$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.58 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 1,334$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.74 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 1,200$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 1,163$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.58 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 913.38$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 781.34$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.67 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 761$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.13 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 534.38$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.66 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 424$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 403.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd447…f42cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 202.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 128.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 119.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…fec8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…b64ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 17.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.