Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe23cd7b8b3d67e63bdf8070d7dfca6f9b4ba5360dd890bcdfc32c96f39fbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 972.28$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 23c | 333.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 39c | 327.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.61 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 245.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 28c | 243.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 223.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked No | 54c | 213.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 196.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 54c | 172.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 59c | 158.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 46c | 151.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 48c | 148.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 56c | 125.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 121.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 102.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 54c | 92.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 89.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 13c | 81.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 74.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 65c | 73.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 69.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 50c | 67.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 51c | 58.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 57c | 53.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…48fdbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 41c | 49.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 31c | 48.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…c199backed Yes | 41c | 48.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 64c | 45.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 45c | 44.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 43.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 53c | 40.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 42c | 39.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 39.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 26c | 39.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 65c | 37.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 36.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 35.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 30.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 68c | 29.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed Yes | 56c | 29.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 55c | 28.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 40c | 27.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 25.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 66c | 25.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 58c | 23.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 48c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 59c | 19.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 60c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 69c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 63c | 16.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.