MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Yankees - Game 4
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc5434693953d784476dcd00799355194217bd0657e939c74e0d04a661dacfd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Guardians, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yankees | 77c | 3,827$2,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.89 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yankees | 56c | 2,196$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.14 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…b78abacked Guardians | 47c | 1,718$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…fcb2backed Yankees | 53c | 1,718$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Guardians | 15c | 1,384$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Guardians | 31c | 1,270$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yankees | 61c | 822.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.04 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 47c | 808.9$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.18 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Guardians | 40c | 797.74$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Guardians | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yankees | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…c62bbacked Guardians | 47c | 527.66$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Guardians | 3c | 516.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…43f6backed Yankees | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Guardians | 47c | 460$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Guardians | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yankees | 74c | 345.36$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Yankees | 62c | 344.5$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…174ebacked Guardians | 12c | 344.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Guardians | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Yankees | 43c | 200.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.53 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yankees | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…6e07backed Guardians | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Yankees | 65c | 199.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Guardians | 39c | 174.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…4eb9backed Guardians | 17c | 174.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…46f2backed Yankees | 54c | 154.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Guardians | 45c | 141.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yankees | 72c | 128.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yankees | 51c | 126.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Guardians | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Yankees | 69c | 105.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Yankees | 50c | 100.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yankees | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yankees | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yankees | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Yankees | 80c | 89.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Yankees | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yankees | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Guardians | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32c…2397backed Guardians | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Yankees | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked Yankees | 74c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Yankees | 70c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Guardians | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Guardians vs. Yankees - Game 4this page
- Will the Guardians and Yankees combine for 8 or more runs scored?Over won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.