Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc5b993d721c01ba0155ecd3abfb68024c7a247f7d3415c77bb6c7a9fed3076b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 68c | 516.34$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Yes | 53c | 330$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 59c | 295.24$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 37c | 288.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.37 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 11c | 246.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 45c | 246.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 77c | 143.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 20c | 100.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…437cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 62c | 97.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 21c | 97.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8c…e7cbbacked No | 12c | 87.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 54c | 71.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 19c | 67.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 64.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 56.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 76c | 56.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 53c | 52.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 61c | 49.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 49.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked No | 65c | 41.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf893…8e06backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 46c | 36.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…2310backed Yes | 39c | 32.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…cde9backed Yes | 39c | 32.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…bfdcbacked Yes | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…f89dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…3a85backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 22.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc175…8b21backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -10°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -12°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -13°C or below on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.