Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc715acaa9800399463203f70f6567f7a2863c17795ac6f6bb2a3bba8862b871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 699.94$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 259.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 234.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 79c | 228.97$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 25c | 225.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 30c | 190.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 189.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 185$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 24c | 180.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 23c | 158.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 135.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 119.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 118.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 112.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 109.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 72c | 109$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 29c | 104.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 101.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 27c | 92.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 89.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 78c | 87.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 83.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 25c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 72c | 81.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 74.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 65.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 63.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 59.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 38c | 52.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 47.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 39.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 35c | 39.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 76c | 35.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf2…e987backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.