TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,082 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c78…80a0backed Yes13c544$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.83324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c430.65$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes59c357.56$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No62c354.94$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4440265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes26c287.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.791,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes57c237.42$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.371,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed01…89b7backed Yes41c228.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.77552%39 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c221.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes43c203.46$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.451,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c199.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.925,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes64c193.55$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.840132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c174$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.595,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No74c160$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No63c158.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3524262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c152.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.719,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes55c150.26$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.472,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes29c149.65$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No69c144.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9822446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c127.32$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.945,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No20c115.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.883,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c94.47$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.233,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.924,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No75c86.37$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.58,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes26c86.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.611,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes42c79.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3347935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked Yes60c79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.437958.2%46 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes25c79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4547738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes38c78.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes33c75.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9545253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c74.51$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.931,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No63c72.91$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0513461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c72.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.092,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c72.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No70c69.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1553951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes73c65.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7621964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes23c64.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c63.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.234,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No43c60.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.649854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.234935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes62c59.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.471,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked No71c58.59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.118255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No51c54.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c53.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1943663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No41c49.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.541,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No75c48.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0643848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No80c48.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6222550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes31c46.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.654,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No44c45.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.492,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x612a…bde5backed No54c43.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.881346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes37c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked No75c37.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4219565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No58c34.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4615660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes33c34.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed No68c33.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4942849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes31c32.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No37c31.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2096015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9016…3cecbacked Yes66c31.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213482.4%28 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No48c30.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9722849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes35c30.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c29.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.282,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes39c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.892,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No75c27.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.142160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No42c27.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No62c26.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes51c25.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.915,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No62c23.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0254547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes67c21.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2347239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No76c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0423958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No74c20.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4658358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No74c20.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.291,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.392,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53745.9%17 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c1…a400backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46163.9%39 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c18.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.493,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes65c18.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.937150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No74c16.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.391,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No67c16.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4740352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked No68c15.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9112052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.