NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Wild: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc7cd1d36ee27be5e4ebf9729548d487d19aa592134d8f711cc3c46f1711fbe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 53c | 8,595$4,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,567.1 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 47c | 5,045$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.85 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.16 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 49c | 1,791$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.81 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 46c | 1,397$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.47 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 49c | 1,324$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 54c | 1,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 55c | 678.62$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.86 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 599.63$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Under | 67c | 596.04$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Over | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 280.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 45c | 172.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Over | 51c | 170.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Under | 49c | 169.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 146.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Over | 52c | 127.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 32c | 116.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 35c | 106.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…f4e8backed Over | 55c | 102.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…92ecbacked Under | 47c | 102.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…058abacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 30c | 85.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…7c2ebacked Over | 58c | 81.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 45c | 61.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Under | 46c | 57.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 55c | 49.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 52c | 47.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Wild: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. WildWild won
- Senators vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.