Ligue 1 · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc9afd8a15a17d91b9218c0c9d90ecdab242f7e1a3a9fb0c28d28f894524804a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 3,725$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.95 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 77c | 1,950$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 56c | 753.46$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 724.01$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.49 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 543.47$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…142abacked Over | 28c | 505.27$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 56c | 395.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 35c | 252.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 249.59$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 48c | 247.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…c08abacked Over | 49c | 151.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 48c | 145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…9716backed Over | 74c | 76.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 32c | 62.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 79c | 57.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f3…ebf6backed Over | 36c | 55.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…da1bbacked Over | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Over | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 41c | 29.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -4.4wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2a05backed Over | 46c | 23.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.