Ligue 1 · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce56bf6e9522a9d40efdfa212ac880620a9d4247687f7161f5a050b2f630d31a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed Over | 53c | 3,019$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 24c | 1,993$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.23 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 1,736$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.61 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Over | 54c | 1,600$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,286$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.52 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 14c | 1,249$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 892.99$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.43 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 52c | 864$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.28 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe76…ee91backed Under | 46c | 741.3$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…6e5dbacked Over | 54c | 551.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 394.03$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 286.5$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…032cbacked Over | 52c | 250.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 46c | 215.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 51c | 179.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Under | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 46c | 89.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 81.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 78c | 68.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 45c | 62.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 69c | 62.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 60.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 68c | 57.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 52c | 55.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 50.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 50c | 38.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 53c | 35.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 51c | 31.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…e204backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.