Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb68c9bfd0f58e34eb137100e8f89b3744736f62debbc8eb18187b8ce2b035a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 64c | 3,590$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.11 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 36c | 3,500$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,134$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.09 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 441.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 30c | 278$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 186.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 156.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 154.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 22c | 137.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 134.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 133$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 31c | 130.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 117$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 98.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 26c | 87.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 77c | 68.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 61.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…1656backed Yes | 24c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 74c | 42.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…aeadbacked No | 72c | 42.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 34c | 41.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 39.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 77c | 33.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 78c | 32.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 73c | 30.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 30.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 27.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 67c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 78c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 78c | 17.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 78c | 17.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 74c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 78c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 78c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.