Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7d4c871763e253c8bd6d80bc0ebad6ec0c9ae05b4237c32be0c72353cc96e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 3c | 417.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…5861backed Yes | 4c | 288.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 30c | 265.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 69c | 224.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 126.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 117.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 91.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 78.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 76c | 77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 28c | 68.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…6d91backed Yes | 30c | 66.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 30c | 65.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 64.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 61.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 32c | 57.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 55.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 28c | 52.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 31c | 51.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 45.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 74c | 43.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 42.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 39.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…c47cbacked No | 73c | 37.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 35.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 71c | 30.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…70c0backed No | 74c | 28.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…cd2dbacked No | 73c | 25.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…39e4backed No | 72c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 71c | 23.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 71c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.