College Football · resolved market
Oregon State vs. Oregon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcc44acb3ca67f8c9d989b431ee364629e03a2e668cbc67cd5bbfc724b131ece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon State, Oregon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Oregon State | 1c | 6,313$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…cd2bbacked Oregon State | 3c | 6,144$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…374abacked Oregon State | 3c | 4,739$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Oregon State | 1c | 4,384$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Oregon State | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Oregon State | 7c | 3,052$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Oregon State | 2c | 3,007$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oregon State | 4c | 2,909$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Oregon State | 3c | 2,250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Oregon State | 1c | 2,144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Oregon State | 4c | 1,198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Oregon State | 2c | 892.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…3e44backed Oregon State | 2c | 835.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Oregon State | 2c | 750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon State | 6c | 739$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Oregon State | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Oregon State | 4c | 493.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Oregon State | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon State vs. Oregonthis page
- Oregon State vs. Oregon: O/U 56.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-33.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.