NHL · resolved market
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcc7432c18ca1d1560d5aa38a4f60b1f6ac31efc7c1c50f9027d50e18a6363a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 19c | 1,072$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 1,003$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.33 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 778.4$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 437.07$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 289.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…2796backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 18c | 249.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 21c | 229.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…a3bebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 168.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 22c | 148.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 114.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 102.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 99.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…0547backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 92.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 21c | 73.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 71c | 70.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 21c | 66.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…cf86backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 63.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 54.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 51.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 50.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 44.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 44.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 43.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 40.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 69c | 37.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…d3c9backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52b…a76fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.