NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcd6ce8b147cf4e49529bd23724f8650bba363f6efacdd5e2573aba02f4bc7f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 47c | 5,009$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 3,266$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.5 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Under | 58c | 2,381$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 54c | 1,281$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.48 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,157$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.44 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 57c | 765.54$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.46 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 47c | 239.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 214.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 174.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Under | 58c | 170.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 76c | 164.16$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Under | 53c | 141.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 140.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 53c | 104.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…be06backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 46c | 40.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Under | 54c | 24.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. FlyersSenators won
- Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.