NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26882f515ada6840f4e3379978094075379be1e5bd8ad8bd0cbe4fcd52080d86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 1,061$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.71 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 57c | 980.15$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.69 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 57c | 958.86$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 473.39$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.42 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 44c | 336.36$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 57c | 290.75$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.73 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 45c | 272.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 214.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Under | 42c | 180.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Over | 56c | 177.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 170$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 56c | 127$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 99.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 90.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…5881backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 44.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…b0d3backed Under | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Over | 58c | 38.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 43c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 28.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 58c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 60c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. FlyersSenators won
- Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.