NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475e6f21609dca5a106789c5f67c28a1b48477fb20985923ec0cac3810d4c690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Senators, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Senators | 35c | 1,379$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.16 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers | 67c | 861.98$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.8 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Flyers | 66c | 762.97$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.41 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Senators | 32c | 714.83$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.75 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flyers | 65c | 601.74$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.61 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Senators | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Senators | 34c | 405.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Flyers | 68c | 354.28$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Flyers | 68c | 352.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Senators | 47c | 226.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 53c | 224.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 53c | 218.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Senators | 47c | 214.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 71c | 212.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Flyers | 66c | 181.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Senators | 33c | 152.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Flyers | 67c | 119$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Flyers | 66c | 105.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Senators | 34c | 103.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Senators | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Flyers | 65c | 95.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 69c | 73.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Senators | 34c | 64.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Senators | 33c | 61.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Senators | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Senators | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…b0d3backed Senators | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Flyers | 66c | 42.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 34c | 39.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Flyers | 68c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Flyers | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Flyers | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Flyers | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked Senators | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flyers | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Flyers | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. FlyersSenators won
- Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.