Asian League · resolved market
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd1972d70c4630591115085060040b342649031614502b0b4b4b219d13ddc96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 19c | 5,263$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.16 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 72c | 2,653$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.21 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,600$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.84 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 1,213$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.17 | 1,818 | 50.4%917 W · 901 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 29c | 1,210$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.1 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 15c | 538.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 854 | 47.9%409 W · 445 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 28c | 393$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.01 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 29c | 379.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.31 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 34c | 331.96$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 63c | 285.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 1,066 | 41.7%445 W · 621 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 77c | 258.09$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 71c | 125$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 72c | 123.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 77c | 93.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 1,529 | 54.9%840 W · 689 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 86.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 838 | 53.7%450 W · 388 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…53b8backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 81.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…31b4backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 27c | 73.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 60c | 71.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 64.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 1,796 | 50.2%902 W · 894 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 74c | 63.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 29c | 60.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 75c | 59.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 29c | 51.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 78c | 46.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 37.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 35.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 72c | 27.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,266 | 50.2%635 W · 631 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 71c | 26.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Yes | 75c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 72c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 75c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 67c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,337 | 56.5%756 W · 581 L | +64.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 68c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 72c | 15.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 77c | 13.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 473 | 53.1%251 W · 222 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-06?No won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.