Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd1b4727610cd534ace05e5849f8378fbaebc6c6caa2e78d684bd926bc707085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,611$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 422.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89b…a0f0backed No | 65c | 297.42$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 276.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed No | 74c | 233.95$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 50c | 220.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 119.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 114.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 103.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 37c | 102.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 63c | 94.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 92.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 84.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 84.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 20c | 83.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…fad7backed Yes | 44c | 83.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 64c | 77.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes | 16c | 74.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 41c | 73.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 39c | 66.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 59.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 34c | 53.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 65c | 53.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 51.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 49.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 44.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 43.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 41.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 34.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 66c | 34.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 59c | 33.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 65c | 32.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 69c | 26.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…d05dbacked No | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 17.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.