Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc42c131eba48bcbb6a7fde530a5139b4460a495cc7b06004b0c9ceddc79e28f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 1,013$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed No | 76c | 869.33$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 74c | 858.82$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.17 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 843.03$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.44 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 656.72$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 75c | 647.63$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 10c | 451.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 273.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed No | 46c | 273.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 31c | 255.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.21 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 59c | 210.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 208$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 23c | 192.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.84 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 27c | 191.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 72c | 188.03$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 181.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 73c | 179.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 39c | 165.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 156.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…522abacked No | 16c | 139.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 72c | 127.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 13c | 109.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 40c | 105.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 88.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 87.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 86.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 17c | 82.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 23c | 80.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked No | 20c | 76.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 22c | 75.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 31c | 75.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 64c | 73.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 73.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…3392backed No | 31c | 73.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 65c | 71.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 51c | 71.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 54c | 69.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 72c | 68.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 22c | 66.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 76c | 56.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 53.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 52c | 53.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 50.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a292backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 60c | 48.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 39c | 46.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 44.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 31c | 41.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 35.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 65c | 34.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed No | 75c | 33.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 30.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked No | 75c | 29.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 28.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 70c | 26.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 80c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 79c | 20.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…da6abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 72c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.