Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd461737cb80dd1236ae4f793ed55fa424a889766e8132d820a31d0c3870915e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 403.7$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 327.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.89 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 300.61$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 285.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 50c | 257.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 245.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 236.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 217.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 187.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 42c | 175.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 135.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 121.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed Yes | 42c | 118.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…f061backed Yes | 23c | 104.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 99.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 99.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 78.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 46c | 65.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 29c | 64.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 61.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 36c | 60.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 53.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 37c | 53.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 47.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…bf3abacked Yes | 38c | 44.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 67c | 39.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 63c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 69c | 28.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 68c | 27.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 50c | 25.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 70c | 22.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 21.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 76c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed Yes | 79c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.