Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0e922adde20d05064d6adbfff40fa7e2f1e72246632683552a979f04a2e0afd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 751.64$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 40c | 634.4$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 411.44$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 393.29$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 267.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 249.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 5c | 227.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 80c | 177.44$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 54c | 176.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 174.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 171.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 165.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 67c | 148.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 68c | 147.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 136.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 125.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 124.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 108.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 65c | 100.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ac…ba39backed Yes | 65c | 91.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 86.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 84.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 40c | 81.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 70c | 64.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 32c | 61.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 67c | 60.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 73c | 60.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 32c | 54.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 53.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 43c | 50.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5900backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adc…79d6backed No | 50c | 46.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 34c | 37.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 69c | 36.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 53c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 42c | 33.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 70c | 33.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 64c | 30.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 64c | 30.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 37c | 29.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 56c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…4fafbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 56c | 26.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 26.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 24.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 55c | 23.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.