Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd60f791db4648e5238956470ce7846bd4ebfbce18fd9cf766bac476d0a488d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Under | 0c | 29,060$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Under | 0c | 15,585$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 3c | 4,999$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,848.94 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6839…0dc5backed Over | 16c | 1,006$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +289.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 15c | 662.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.23 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 77c | 652.49$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.35 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 567.39$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.29 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 54c | 560.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 19c | 505.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.25 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 435.46$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 55c | 412.11$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 54c | 246.65$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Over | 16c | 192.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +7.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 16c | 112.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 16c | 110$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 16c | 100.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 100.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 15c | 84.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 16c | 83.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Over | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 54c | 74.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 50c | 60.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 55c | 54.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb0…d1bbbacked Over | 24c | 50.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…29e8backed Over | 48c | 50.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Under | 68c | 30.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 30.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 30.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 61c | 30.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 45c | 23.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Over | 52c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.