Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080b821232f5a4125448434c1f1833cf73e45696d7560399090295a68ea2517e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe667…898fbacked Under | 0c | 9,518$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 32c | 8,712$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,941.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 7,480$5,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,086.31 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 4,849$3,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,123.51 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…21fbbacked Under | 1c | 1,496$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +224.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 45c | 1,114$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 6c | 1,090$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.6 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 31c | 968.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.51 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 940.08$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.32 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.29 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.43 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 41c | 489.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 31c | 427.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Over | 33c | 303.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 45c | 278.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 20c | 260$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 41c | 244.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 34c | 232.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.87 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 45c | 223.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…8b6dbacked Over | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 6c | 172$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 139.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 38c | 132.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 63c | 129.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 23c | 69.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Under | 75c | 67.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 32c | 62.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 75c | 55.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 34c | 49.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 28c | 49.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Under | 68c | 47.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 44.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 68c | 40.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 74c | 39.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 73c | 35.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 60c | 35.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Under | 71c | 17.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.