Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd64e3774a3b97c74c0a1dfbfd287b72f4b06fd13233f2a621eafb9f3384128d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 67c | 899.36$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 286.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 274.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 10c | 235.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.25 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 25c | 180.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 71c | 172.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 167.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 23c | 159.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed No | 70c | 133.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked No | 60c | 119.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 102.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 102.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 97.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 91.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 87.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 32c | 71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 28c | 63.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 52.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked No | 69c | 34.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 35c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 18.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 75c | 15.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 78c | 14.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.