Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7012cceefb0ec855263309c43725936d9fe53079f9ef304eedf749e69dae1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 76c | 1,600$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 23c | 1,564$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.07 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 76c | 1,343$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.49 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Down | 23c | 1,143$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 74c | 1,098$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.96 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…ce91backed Down | 17c | 1,093$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…11ffbacked Up | 77c | 649.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Down | 19c | 358.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Down | 18c | 342.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Down | 14c | 320.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…2c64backed Down | 16c | 305.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…bae5backed Up | 80c | 230$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Down | 21c | 207.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Down | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 19c | 186.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Up | 75c | 175$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 32c | 114.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Down | 21c | 77.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…d81fbacked Down | 19c | 66.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…a3bdbacked Down | 37c | 51.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Up | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Up | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…db73backed Up | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59be…dc3ebacked Up | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e20…fa61backed Up | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Up | 70c | 30.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6965…c654backed Up | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…d240backed Up | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Up | 80c | 15.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.