IPO · resolved market
Will HawkEye 360's market cap be between $3.25B and $4.0B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd9ee41d6e5a5feaf0665b31c1454f80e68bbceb98fffea412e2d2cefad375b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 76c | 989.87$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.16 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 22c | 664$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 21c | 273$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…4c28backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 76c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…476dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HawkEye 360's market cap be between $3.25B and $4.0B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will HawkEye 360's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will HawkEye 360's market cap be between $4.0B and $4.75B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will HawkEye 360's market cap be less than $2.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.