Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. OFK Petrovac: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda3be6221a614b61bd72649390435bc8787b402e74fb4dbaeef912097715538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 55c | 353.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.18 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 317.48$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 39c | 300.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.28 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 46c | 274.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 55c | 216.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 29c | 187.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 73c | 118.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 117.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 45c | 98.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 83.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 43c | 74.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6b58backed Over | 57c | 69.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 21c | 64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 62c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Under | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 46.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked Under | 77c | 39.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 45c | 35.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd60…c454backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Over | 32c | 32.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 38c | 31.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. OFK Petrovac: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. OFK Petrovac: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. OFK Petrovac: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. OFK Petrovac: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. OFK Petrovac: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Žalgiris Vilnius vs. OFK Petrovac: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Žalgiris Vilnius (-1.5)OFK Petrovac won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.