Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdaa9564e363dc67fd42041b6b521fa9f0cbdf8fd0d7cc789eb0a5b24b6f0a51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 26c | 309.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 309.2$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 29c | 207.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 188.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 178.79$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 162.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 155.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 148.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 16c | 124.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 23c | 106.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 28c | 99.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 36c | 98.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 75c | 90.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 26c | 86.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 25c | 82.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 75.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 63.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 17c | 62.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 25c | 59.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 55.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 55.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 53.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 43.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 28c | 37.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 33.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 31.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked No | 75c | 30.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 29.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 67c | 25.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked No | 74c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 78c | 19.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 72c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 74c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.