TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9196…d934backed Yes54c1,176$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.5964460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c550.15$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No47c544.41$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.694,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No3c522.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes50c384.52$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes77c348.92$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes49c324.85$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1522446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c309.2$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.125,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c303.53$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.54,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98f8…394dbacked Yes42c299.63$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.784835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f77…4b79backed Yes56c287.1$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.12937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c286.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.689,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes64c281.73$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0938655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes56c278.94$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.155,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c188.66$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.166,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes55c187.02$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.737855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes46c160.22$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.231,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No48c156.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No47c155.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.111,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes48c153.83$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5816641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No37c149.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.422550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed Yes43c148.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0722857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No55c147.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.887,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes71c144.05$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6453258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes41c141.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.621,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17c0…0426backed Yes56c130$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.46862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes36c128.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9945540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c118.97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No19c118.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8724139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes53c116$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9625954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No62c113.53$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3992678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No43c109.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes46c108.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1925058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No61c106.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.351,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed Yes54c101.1$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.989339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No47c100.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x464c…f570backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5024732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716931.9%22 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No58c98.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes31c97.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4717231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes56c96.24$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.141,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x095b…2971backed Yes52c96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes47c87.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6353951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No41c85.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.246,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes42c82.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes62c80.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.72,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.69744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No59c80$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.27252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes44c79.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8190555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes51c78.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.492445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No59c77.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c77.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.352,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e7…ed80backed No57c75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.756552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes34c72.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4335344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes54c71.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0224751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No41c71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.941,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.227129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes72c69.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1242061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes80c67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5718235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes48c66.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.212171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes40c65.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5648919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes75c62.76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6630665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes30c61.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6639346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes80c61.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4620662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes55c58.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No69c57.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.589038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes49c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.562,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.252,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes29c54.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0416937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes34c54.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2717237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes79c54.18$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.292,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes43c53.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes57c52.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.891,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed13…ac4abacked Yes37c52.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No58c52.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No72c51.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0719648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc9b…303ebacked No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2012849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No69c49.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed Yes42c49.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.989746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182a…f847backed Yes75c46.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9318762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No55c46.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed Yes34c44.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1226861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes48c43.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5624569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c42.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.353,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No41c42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0158358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked No26c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes47c40.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.422,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.446148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No63c39.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.242754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes37c39.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0429345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No52c38.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.261,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c38.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.282,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.