Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0741801ce223ecefe85aab1ffc987529d5eb5cbc25383d4bfc1fbe7a145d7d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 54c | 1,176$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 550.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 544.41$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 522.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 50c | 384.52$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.85 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 348.92$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 49c | 324.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 309.2$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 303.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 42c | 299.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.78 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 56c | 287.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 286.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 64c | 281.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 278.94$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 188.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 55c | 187.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 46c | 160.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 156.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 155.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 48c | 153.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 43c | 148.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 147.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 71c | 144.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 41c | 141.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…0426backed Yes | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 36c | 128.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 118.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 19c | 118.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 53c | 116$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 113.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 43c | 109.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 46c | 108.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 61c | 106.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 54c | 101.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 47c | 100.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…f570backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 98.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 31c | 97.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 96.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…2971backed Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 47c | 87.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 85.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 42c | 82.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 80.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 44c | 79.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes | 51c | 78.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 59c | 77.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 77.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 34c | 72.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 54c | 71.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 72c | 69.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 80c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 48c | 66.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 40c | 65.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 62.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 30c | 61.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 61.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 58.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 69c | 57.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 29c | 54.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 34c | 54.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 54.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 53.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 57c | 52.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…ac4abacked Yes | 37c | 52.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 58c | 52.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 72c | 51.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…303ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 75c | 46.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 46.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 48c | 43.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 42.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 40.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 39.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 37c | 39.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 38.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 38.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.