Euroleague · resolved market
Virtus Bologna vs. FC Bayern Munchen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf4b2a4680655f1911d80cec90388ccbfc875568dd9194982614a31fa624eee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Munchenof Virtus Bologna, FC Bayern Munchen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Virtus Bologna | 56c | 1,145$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus Bologna | 33c | 568.1$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.24 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed FC Bayern Munchen | 64c | 482.43$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.94 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…b6f3backed Virtus Bologna | 35c | 439$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 66c | 424.54$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 69c | 391.17$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Virtus Bologna | 50c | 342.15$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Virtus Bologna | 33c | 311.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 269 | 35.3%95 W · 174 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 67c | 311.47$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…d8b9backed FC Bayern Munchen | 44c | 254.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 68c | 216.24$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed FC Bayern Munchen | 45c | 199.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Virtus Bologna | 56c | 187.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Virtus Bologna | 56c | 173.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…79c4backed Virtus Bologna | 25c | 142.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…1c2cbacked Virtus Bologna | 26c | 141.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Virtus Bologna | 57c | 120.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed FC Bayern Munchen | 45c | 107.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Virtus Bologna | 55c | 99.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Bayern Munchen | 45c | 97.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed FC Bayern Munchen | 78c | 96.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Virtus Bologna | 53c | 93.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 61c | 91.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Virtus Bologna | 43c | 80.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 215 | 35.8%77 W · 138 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Bayern Munchen | 48c | 79.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Virtus Bologna | 55c | 76.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed FC Bayern Munchen | 80c | 75.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Virtus Bologna | 22c | 74.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed FC Bayern Munchen | 48c | 70.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…caefbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 48c | 70.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 44c | 67.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 64c | 60.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +11.5wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…c913backed Virtus Bologna | 26c | 54.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 67c | 54.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed FC Bayern Munchen | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Virtus Bologna | 29c | 44.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed FC Bayern Munchen | 67c | 39.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 77c | 35.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 352 | 34.7%122 W · 230 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…0bc7backed Virtus Bologna | 57c | 34.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed FC Bayern Munchen | 45c | 27.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.