Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf7ae5250f4528fd637d80c863c69c14b3f0675ddafc6a44ae7597c44b75abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4ee…4538backed Yes | 4c | 1,133$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 2c | 999.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 3c | 795.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…cd6bbacked Yes | 8c | 695.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 37c | 363.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…fa21backed No | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 110.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 40.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe765…603cbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 before June?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $18 before June?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $26 before June?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $28 before June?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $30 before June?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $32 before June?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $35 before June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.