Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf8ef4973f6f6ca7bc390a508b17dae34ec75245ea303360f0b4782cf2c1174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 342.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 277.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 261.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 256.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 245.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 20c | 230.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.12 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 55c | 181.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 34c | 148.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 80c | 143.12$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 15c | 142.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 135.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 52c | 132.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 128.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 119.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 41c | 105.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed No | 49c | 102.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 99.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 74c | 92.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 91.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…cc68backed No | 18c | 69.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 40c | 67.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 26c | 65.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed Yes | 18c | 61.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 60.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 56.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 50.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 29c | 47.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 37c | 43.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 57c | 34.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 51c | 31.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 50c | 29.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2291…89dabacked Yes | 69c | 29.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 75c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 25.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 25.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 58c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 63c | 23.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 23.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 67c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.