Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe067757e3244b4e4ac8bbb488512557d1105ff88170c0b2048894cd638b12fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d23…8776backed Over | 77c | 1,890$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 1,264$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.84 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Under | 20c | 792$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 18c | 611.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 576.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 68c | 499.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.26 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 23c | 424.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 16c | 401.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 24c | 192.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 188.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 17c | 142.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed Under | 21c | 56.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 75c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.