Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa0f8e8f8c610eedd90d126ed08ff2cdacb871fbc78720146de6543d50460c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 57c | 6,140$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Under | 51c | 6,120$3,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,522$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.98 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 38c | 2,256$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.2 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Under | 51c | 2,091$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 1,367$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.9 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 63c | 1,182$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…e696backed Over | 49c | 1,088$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…0726backed Over | 49c | 1,015$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 39c | 870.5$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 64c | 855.98$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 51c | 781.65$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.36 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 42c | 754.24$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.24 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 47c | 548.58$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.98 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Over | 47c | 530.58$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 62c | 500$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.86 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x998f…75d1backed Under | 65c | 490.81$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 39c | 450$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d23…8776backed Under | 75c | 380.58$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 53c | 378$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 38c | 348$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.96 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 322.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 317.18$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 40c | 222$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 56c | 221.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 220.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 50c | 209.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 54c | 180.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Over | 9c | 170.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 43c | 154.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 59c | 119.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…34e5backed Under | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 48c | 108.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 107.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Under | 52c | 95.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…0348backed Over | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 84.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a4…3fd8backed Under | 41c | 68.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over | 51c | 68.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 51c | 49.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Over | 62c | 48.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed Under | 45c | 45.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…d9edbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…4662backed Over | 33c | 37.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 46c | 37.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7eb8backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Over | 54c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Over | 56c | 24.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Over | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Under | 49c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.