Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3b0fa53797ad6f30d6a8a8c27f53b392ec2ce61e4ebdeb4530a500d49f7bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 495.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 202.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 17c | 200.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 188$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 170$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.37 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 16c | 163.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 140.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 132.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 125.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 121$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 119.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf122…d07cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 102.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 94.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 46c | 90.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 78c | 90.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 85.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 56c | 74.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 24c | 71.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 70.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 65.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 25c | 62.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 17c | 60.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 55.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 76c | 46.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 43.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 42.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 68c | 39.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 39.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…e084backed Yes | 75c | 33.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 30.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 28.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 43c | 25.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 65c | 25.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 70c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 80c | 18.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 16.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 15.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.