Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x003f164af9fa4c203bbd41ed959b4accac4b88d12b3c75bc085c4e045971acff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 56c | 354.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 197.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 57c | 158.73$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 152.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 69c | 145.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 119.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 43c | 118.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 113.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 103.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 102.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 95.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 60c | 94.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 73c | 78.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 77.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 42c | 70.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 45c | 66.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 65.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 60.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 39c | 59.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 54.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 54.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 49.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 41.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 35.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 34.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 42c | 31.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 30.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 27.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 42c | 27.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 25.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ba6dbacked Yes | 44c | 25.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 56c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.