Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf182d24257f78f19a5a667586a8c739b22c385c2bdafa47d9a92ceaadb9da67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 438.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 20c | 233.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 171.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 156.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 148.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 129.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 120.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 111.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 108.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 87.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…1ac2backed Yes | 23c | 86.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 85.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 85.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 77.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 72.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 69.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 27c | 69.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 68.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 66.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 29c | 47.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 37c | 45.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 43.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 25c | 40.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 40.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 63c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 30.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…bc70backed No | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 80c | 18.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.