South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe51da6fbb6617d0856265826579dbe34ff9b7d9ea067fdbe56c48a246801869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 29c | 20,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,200 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 71c | 19,660$13,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,958.65 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 1,016$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.51 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 47c | 730$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.7 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 55c | 604.79$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.71 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Yes | 44c | 536.81$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.29 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 71c | 350.93$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 65c | 313.72$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.92 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bc…b2a5backed Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 73c | 258$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.67 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…ee79backed Yes | 75c | 192.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 27c | 162.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 74c | 136.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c701backed Yes | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 83.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcf…0446backed Yes | 72c | 76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 37c | 57.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 28c | 52.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Yes | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…1b91backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…c0ebbacked No | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…18afbacked Yes | 71c | 28.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 42.1%170 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…9a37backed Yes | 71c | 26.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ea…4b97backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 50c | 20.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…58dcbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…86eebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…ce31backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…2733backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Juárez win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.