South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea3a69440956565101658bd83f275490cf918e27f5e05d838f377bc8eeda32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 2,049$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.19 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 43c | 1,384$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.16 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 1,301$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.82 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 57c | 1,200$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.7 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,193$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 897.84$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 44c | 720.45$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…2d0dbacked No | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 73c | 387.34$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afc…5d32backed Yes | 44c | 377.4$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 62c | 329$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 15c | 284.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…6f13backed No | 73c | 230$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 209.59$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 13c | 192.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 173.9$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 71c | 129.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…819cbacked Yes | 8c | 127.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 13c | 113.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…6d59backed Yes | 44c | 111.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 74c | 107.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 101.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…3177backed Yes | 38c | 78.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 76.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 69c | 72.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…52adbacked Yes | 28c | 65.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860c…418dbacked Yes | 24c | 63.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 58.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 68c | 58.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…a34bbacked No | 75c | 54.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…61a0backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 55c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…b976backed No | 64c | 23.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?this page
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-28?No won
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.