Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeaa45061bc15781a284278b29b3a8599373ea01546d1d9557c7b347dcb773fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 280.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 255.61$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 216.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 210.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 123.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 58c | 107.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 61c | 99.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 72c | 89.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 68.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 55.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 53.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 71c | 52.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…68eabacked No | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…76aebacked Yes | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 46.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 38c | 45.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 36c | 42.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 41.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 63c | 39.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 39.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 47c | 38.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed No | 29c | 37.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 44c | 33.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 51c | 33.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 31.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 44c | 30.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 49c | 28.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 28.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 65c | 25.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 46c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 43c | 23.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 62c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 66c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 55c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 65c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.